The Atlanta Falcons have been part of the NFL since the 1960s and have reached two Super Bowls, including one of the most famous comebacks in sports history (on the wrong end). They play under a roof, which matters for totals. Here's the guide.
Who the Atlanta Falcons are
City and stadium
The Falcons joined the NFL as an expansion team in 1966. They played at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium, then the Georgia Dome, and since 2017 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in downtown Atlanta. The stadium has a distinctive retractable roof that opens like a camera aperture. It has hosted a Super Bowl and major college football games.
Famous eras
- The "Gritz Blitz": a strong defense in the late 1970s helped the Falcons to early playoff success.
- Super Bowl XXXIII: after the 1998 season, the "Dirty Birds" reached their first Super Bowl, losing to Denver.
- Super Bowl LI: after the 2016 season, Atlanta led the New England Patriots 28-3 in the third quarter before losing in overtime, the largest comeback in Super Bowl history.
- Between runs: the franchise has alternated between playoff seasons and rebuilds.
Rivalries
The New Orleans Saints rivalry is the Falcons' biggest, a long-running Southern rivalry. Atlanta also plays the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers twice a year in the NFC South.
How to read odds on Falcons games
Favorite or underdog
Falcons -3.5 (-110), moneyline -175: implied 175 ÷ 275 = 63.6%. Falcons +1.5 (-110), moneyline +105: implied 100 ÷ 205 = 48.8%.
Live odds and big leads
The Super Bowl LI collapse is a lesson in live win probability. At 28-3 in the third quarter, win probability models gave Atlanta well over 95%. The comeback was rare but not impossible. A 95% chance still fails 1 time in 20. See how live games change win probability.
Worked example: live moneyline at a big lead
Imagine a live moneyline for a team leading by 20 midway through the third quarter: -2000.
- Implied probability: 2000 ÷ 2100 = 95.2%
- Stake 100 to win 5
If the team wins 95 times out of 100 at that price, you'd make 5 × 95 = 475 and lose 100 × 5 = 500. Net: -25. Even when "safe" teams win, short prices plus a margin can mean losing over time.
Indoor home games
Atlanta's roof means home games are generally unaffected by weather. Totals at home reflect teams and pace. Road trips north late in the season may bring cold and wind.
Division familiarity
NFC South games, especially Falcons-Saints, can be competitive regardless of records. Rivalry intensity is often discussed, but its measurable effect is modest. See how to read a matchup.
Season-long markets
The NFC South has often been one of the more balanced divisions, with titles changing hands frequently. If the Falcons are +200 to win it, the implied chance is 100 ÷ 300 = 33.3%. In a balanced division, the six division games often decide the winner, and small edges in those games matter a lot.
Late-season trips
An indoor team traveling to cold outdoor stadiums late in the season is a popular storyline. The effect is debated, but it's worth noting the weather forecast and whether the Falcons' offense relies heavily on passing.
What to check before picking Falcons games
- Quarterback status.
- Roof: indoors at home.
- Road weather later in the season.
- NFC South spots, especially the Saints games.
- Rest and travel.
- Price vs your estimate. See implied probability.
Practice with play money
The Falcons offer a great lesson in live win probability. On MockSport you can make free play-money picks and follow live scores to see how leads translate into win chances. Visit the odds page.
FAQ
What happened in Super Bowl LI?
The Falcons led the New England Patriots 28-3 in the third quarter but lost 34-28 in overtime, the largest comeback in Super Bowl history.
Does Mercedes-Benz Stadium have a roof?
Yes. It has a retractable roof, so weather rarely affects Falcons home games.
Who are the Falcons' rivals?
Mainly the New Orleans Saints, plus the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South.