The Denver Nuggets play a mile above sea level, which many believe gives them one of the NBA's stronger home-court advantages. They won their first championship in 2023. Here's how to read Nuggets odds.
Who the Denver Nuggets are
City and arena
The franchise began in the ABA in 1967 as the Denver Rockets, became the Nuggets in 1974 and joined the NBA in 1976 when the leagues merged. Denver sits at about 5,280 feet, and the Nuggets play at Ball Arena (formerly the Pepsi Center) in downtown Denver.
Famous eras
- ABA years: the Nuggets were one of the ABA's strongest teams in the mid-1970s, reaching the final ABA championship series.
- High-scoring 1980s: under coach Doug Moe, the Nuggets played at an extremely fast pace, posting some of the highest scoring averages in NBA history.
- 1994 upset: as an eighth seed, Denver beat the top-seeded Seattle SuperSonics, with Dikembe Mutombo's famous celebration.
- 2023 champions: the Nuggets won their first NBA title, built around an elite passing big man and a strong starting lineup.
Rivalries
In the Northwest Division, the Nuggets face the Utah Jazz (a Rocky Mountain rivalry), Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers. Playoff battles with the Los Angeles Lakers have also been significant.
How to read odds on Nuggets games
Favorite or underdog
Nuggets -6.5 (-110), moneyline -270: implied 270 ÷ 370 = 73.0%. Nuggets +3 (-110), moneyline +130: implied 100 ÷ 230 = 43.5%.
Altitude and home court
Altitude is often cited as a factor in Denver's home advantage. Visiting teams may tire faster, especially late in games or on back-to-backs. Historically, Denver has often been viewed as having one of the NBA's stronger home edges. As with all home advantages, it's priced into the line and has varied over time. See home-field advantage.
Worked example: altitude and back-to-backs
An opponent arrives in Denver on the second night of a back-to-back. The line is Nuggets -8.
Suppose your neutral-court estimate is Nuggets -4, home advantage is worth 3 points, and you think the back-to-back at altitude is worth another 1.5 points.
- Your projection: -4 − 3 − 1.5 = Nuggets -8.5
The market at -8 is close to your number. You probably don't have an edge. If the market were -6, you'd see value on Denver. Breaking a line into parts helps you see where you disagree.
Star-centered offense
When a team's offense runs through one exceptional player, that player's availability can move the line a lot. Check injury reports right up to tip-off. See reading injury reports.
Road performance
Some teams with strong home edges show bigger home-road splits than average. If a team performs much better at home than away, its road lines may reflect that. Look at a meaningful sample before assuming.
Totals at altitude
Altitude doesn't change shooting much in indoor basketball, but fatigue can affect late-game defense. Some observers think visiting teams struggle more in the fourth quarter in Denver. Totals usually reflect the two teams' pace and efficiency, with any altitude effect already folded in by the market.
Playoff home court
In a best-of-seven series, the higher seed gets up to four home games. For a team with a strong home edge, that's worth more than for an average team. Seeding matters when you think about Nuggets series prices.
What to check before picking Nuggets games
- Star availability.
- Opponent's schedule: back-to-backs and travel into Denver.
- Home vs road splits.
- Pace for totals.
- Playoff vs regular season context.
- The price. See implied probability.
Futures
When the Nuggets are contenders, their title odds may be short. If Denver is +600, the implied chance is 100 ÷ 700 = 14.3%. Home-court advantage in playoff series can matter more for teams with strong home edges. See championship odds.
Practice with play money
Nuggets games are a great test of your view on altitude and home court. On MockSport you can make free play-money picks on Nuggets home and road games and see whether altitude showed up in the results. Visit the odds page.
FAQ
When did the Nuggets win their first championship?
In 2023.
Does altitude help the Nuggets?
Many believe altitude adds to Denver's home advantage, particularly for visitors on back-to-backs. It's priced into the line.
Were the Nuggets an ABA team?
Yes. They started in the ABA in 1967 and joined the NBA in 1976.