Futures are picks on outcomes decided later, usually at the end of a season. The most popular are championship odds: who will win the Super Bowl, the NBA Finals, the World Series, the Stanley Cup or a soccer league title. Futures are fun because they keep you invested all season. They are also a tricky market with high margins and lots of uncertainty.
You can see current championship prices on the championship odds page.
How futures odds look
A championship market lists every team with a price, usually in American or decimal odds:
- Team A: +450 (5.50)
- Team B: +600 (7.00)
- Team C: +900 (10.00)
- Team D: +2500 (26.00)
- ...down to long shots at +10000 (101.00) or more
The favorite might still have a low chance of winning. In a 30-team league with playoffs, even the best team usually wins the title well under half the time.
Worked example: payouts
A 20 stake on Team C at +900:
- Profit = 20 × 9 = 180
- Total return = 200
A 20 stake on Team D at +2500:
- Profit = 20 × 25 = 500
- Total return = 520
These payouts look large, but they reflect how unlikely each outcome is.
Converting to probability
Use the standard formula for plus odds: 100 ÷ (odds + 100).
- +450 → 100 ÷ 550 = 18.2%
- +600 → 100 ÷ 700 = 14.3%
- +900 → 100 ÷ 1000 = 10.0%
- +2500 → 100 ÷ 2600 = 3.8%
- +10000 → 100 ÷ 10100 = 1.0%
Why the margin is so high
In a two-way game line, implied probabilities add up to around 104% to 105%. In a futures market with dozens of teams, add up every team's probability and you will often find 120% to 140% or more. The excess is the house margin spread across all the teams.
That means futures prices are usually further from fair than single-game prices. Long shots in particular tend to be priced shorter than their true chances. A team listed at +10000 (1%) might realistically have a much smaller chance.
Why prices change during a season
Futures prices move with every result, injury and trade:
- A strong start shortens a team's price.
- An injury to a star lengthens it.
- Playoff seeding changes the path to the title.
Worked example: a team opens the season at +2000 (4.8%). After a strong first half and a weak conference, it moves to +600 (14.3%). Someone who picked it early got a much better price. But for every team that shortens, many others drift out to long odds or are eliminated.
The time cost of futures
With real money, futures tie up stakes for months. Even in play money, it is worth remembering that a futures pick can only be judged at the end. You may wait the whole season to find out.
Other types of futures
- Division or conference winners
- Season win totals (over/under a number of wins)
- Awards like MVP or rookie of the year
- Top scorer in soccer leagues
- To make the playoffs yes/no
Season win totals are often the most approachable, because they work like a normal over/under and have only two sides.
How to think about futures
- Convert every price to probability. Ask whether a team really has that chance.
- Think about the path. Playoff formats, conference strength and schedule matter.
- Be skeptical of long shots. They are fun, but the margin on them is often large.
- Remember variance. Even the best team loses short series and single-elimination games.
- Check prices before and after big news. The price reacts instantly to injuries and trades.
Championship odds in different sports
- NFL: single-elimination playoffs mean upsets are common, so even top teams carry modest odds.
- NBA: best-of-seven series reward the strongest teams, so favorites tend to be shorter than in other sports.
- MLB and NHL: playoff series are more random. Strong regular seasons often don't translate into titles.
- Soccer leagues: league titles reward consistency over a full season, so the strongest teams are often clear favorites. Cup competitions are more random.
Track futures with play money
Futures are a great way to stay engaged across a season without needing to make picks every day. On MockSport you can follow championship odds and practice with free play-money tokens. Make a few picks early in a season, note the implied probabilities, and revisit them as the season unfolds. You will learn a lot about how markets react to news.
FAQ
What are futures in sports betting?
Futures are picks on outcomes decided in the future, like who wins a championship or an award. They are settled at the end of a season or competition.
Why are favorites in futures still long odds?
Because winning a title requires surviving a long season and playoffs. Even the best team in a league usually has well under a 50% chance to win it all.
Are futures odds fair?
They usually carry a higher margin than single-game odds, especially for long shots. Adding up every team's implied probability often gives 120% or more.