Hockey is one of the most unpredictable major sports. Goals are scarce, bounces are random, and a hot goalie can steal a game their team was outplayed in. That makes NHL odds interesting: favorites are rarely heavy, and the prices often sit close to even. Here is how to read them.
The three main NHL markets
1. Moneyline
Pick the winner, including overtime and shootouts. This is the most popular NHL market.
- Home: -145
- Away: +125
Because of parity and randomness, NHL moneylines are usually tighter than in the NBA or NFL. A favorite around -150 to -200 is a solid favorite in hockey. Prices beyond -250 are relatively uncommon.
2. Puck line
Hockey's version of the point spread, almost always set at 1.5 goals.
- Favorite -1.5 (+170)
- Underdog +1.5 (-200)
The favorite must win by 2 or more. The underdog covers if they win or lose by exactly 1. Because so many games are decided by one goal, the favorite on the puck line often has plus odds and the underdog has minus odds.
3. Total
Combined goals, usually set at 5.5 or 6.5.
- Over 5.5 (-115)
- Under 5.5 (-105)
The number rarely changes much. Instead, the price shifts to reflect expected scoring.
Worked example: moneyline vs puck line
Home team: moneyline -170, puck line -1.5 at +150.
Stake 50 on the moneyline:
- Win: profit = 50 × (100 ÷ 170) = 29.41
Stake 50 on the puck line:
- Win by 2+: profit = 50 × 1.5 = 75
- Win by 1: lose
Implied probability of the home team winning by 2+: 100 ÷ 250 = 40%. Implied probability of winning at all: 170 ÷ 270 = 63%. The gap shows how many wins are expected to be by a single goal.
Overtime, shootouts and empty nets
Overtime and shootouts count for the standard moneyline, puck line and totals in most markets. A shootout winner is usually credited with one extra goal in the final score for settlement purposes. So a game tied 2-2 that ends in a shootout typically counts as 3-2 for totals and puck lines. Always check the rules.
Regulation-only markets (sometimes called 60-minute lines) exist too. These are three-way, like soccer, with a draw option if the game is tied after regulation.
Empty-net goals matter a lot for puck lines. When a team trails by one late, it often pulls its goalie for an extra attacker. That frequently leads to an empty-net goal for the leading team, turning a 1-goal win into a 2-goal win. It also adds to totals late in games.
Why the starting goalie matters
In hockey, one player has an outsized impact: the goalie. The difference between a team's starting goalie and its backup can move the moneyline noticeably. Teams often rest their starter on the second night of back-to-backs.
Before a pick, check:
- Who is confirmed to start in net.
- Whether it is the second game of a back-to-back.
- How the goalie has been playing recently, while remembering that hot and cold streaks are often noise. See streaks and form.
Other factors to check
- Schedule and travel. Back-to-backs and long road trips can affect performance.
- Special teams. Power play and penalty kill strength can swing close games.
- Home ice. Home teams get the last line change, which helps with matchups. See home-field advantage.
- Shot quality vs results. A team scoring a lot on few chances may cool off.
- Injuries. See reading injury reports.
Why hockey favorites lose so often
Hockey games are low-scoring and decided by small margins. A single deflection or power play can decide the outcome. That means even clearly better teams lose regularly. If a -160 favorite wins about 60% of the time, it still loses about 4 games in 10. Our guide to why upsets happen explains the math.
Period markets
You can also make picks on individual periods, like first-period totals or first-period winners. These are even more random because there is less time for skill to show. They are best treated as fun side picks.
Practice NHL picks with play money
Hockey is a great sport to practice reading prices because lines cluster closely and small edges matter. On MockSport you can make free play-money picks on NHL moneylines, puck lines and totals and track how your reads do across a season. No deposits, no prizes. Browse games on the odds page.
FAQ
What is the puck line in hockey?
The puck line is hockey's point spread, almost always 1.5 goals. The favorite must win by 2 or more, and the underdog covers by winning or losing by exactly 1.
Does the NHL moneyline include overtime and shootouts?
Yes, the standard moneyline usually includes overtime and shootouts. Regulation-only, three-way lines are offered separately.
Why are NHL favorites usually not heavy favorites?
Hockey is low-scoring and has lots of randomness, so even strong teams lose often. Prices reflect that by staying closer to even.