Soccer is different from most American sports because games can end in a draw, and they often do. That is why the main soccer market has three outcomes instead of two: home win, draw and away win. This is called the 3-way moneyline or 1X2 market.
What 1X2 means
- 1 = home team wins
- X = draw
- 2 = away team wins
A typical listing in decimal odds:
- Home: 2.10
- Draw: 3.40
- Away: 3.60
Only one of these wins. If you pick the home team and the match ends 1-1, your pick loses.
Regular time only
The 3-way market is settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts in cup competitions do not count. If a knockout match is 1-1 after 90 minutes and goes to penalties, the 1X2 result is a draw, no matter who advances.
Worked example
Using the prices above, a 20 stake:
- Home win at 2.10: return 42, profit 22
- Draw at 3.40: return 68, profit 48
- Away win at 3.60: return 72, profit 52
Implied probabilities:
- Home: 1 ÷ 2.10 = 47.6%
- Draw: 1 ÷ 3.40 = 29.4%
- Away: 1 ÷ 3.60 = 27.8%
- Total: 104.8%
The extra 4.8% is the margin. Fair probabilities (divide each by 1.048): 45.4%, 28.1%, 26.5%.
Why draws matter so much
Draws are common in soccer. In many top leagues, roughly a quarter of matches end level, although it varies by league and season. That has big consequences:
- Favorites win less often than you think. A team at 1.60 implies about 62%, so the other 38% includes the draw and the upset.
- Underdogs have two ways to avoid losing. They can win or draw.
- Draw prices sit in a narrow range. Draws are usually priced somewhere between about 3.00 and 4.50 for competitive matches. They lengthen when one team is a heavy favorite.
Related markets that remove the draw
Double chance
You cover two of the three outcomes:
- 1X: home win or draw
- X2: away win or draw
- 12: either team wins (no draw)
Because you cover more outcomes, the odds are shorter. Using the fair probabilities above, X2 would be about 28.1% + 26.5% = 54.6%, or fair odds around 1.83. Actual prices will be a little shorter because of the margin.
Draw no bet
You pick a team, and if the match is drawn, your stake is returned. It is a two-way market with the draw removed.
Worked example: Away draw no bet at about 2.55.
- Away wins: profit 1.55 per unit
- Draw: stake returned
- Home wins: lose
Asian handicap
A soccer version of the point spread, with half-goal and quarter-goal lines. For example, Home -0.5 is the same as picking the home team to win. Away +0.5 is the same as away win or draw. Quarter lines like -0.25 split your stake across two neighboring lines.
What affects 1X2 prices
- Home advantage. Historically meaningful in soccer, though its size varies. See home-field advantage.
- Team strength over a season, not just recent results.
- Injuries and suspensions, especially to key attackers, central defenders and goalkeepers.
- Fixture congestion. Teams in European competitions or cup runs may rotate players.
- Motivation. Late-season matches where one side has nothing to play for.
- Style. Two defensive teams make a draw more likely.
Thinking about the draw
Many people avoid picking draws because they feel boring or unlikely. But a draw at 3.40 implies about 29%. If two evenly matched, cautious teams meet, the real draw chance might be a little higher. It is worth at least considering the draw in every match rather than dismissing it.
Common mistakes
- Treating 1X2 like a two-way moneyline. The draw is always lurking.
- Forgetting extra time doesn't count. Cup ties can trip you up.
- Over-trusting favorites. Low-scoring games create more randomness. One goal decides many matches. See upsets and underdogs.
Practice 3-way picks
The best way to get a feel for draws is to watch the outcomes pile up over a season. On MockSport you can make free play-money picks on soccer matches, including draws, and see how often each outcome lands. Browse the odds page for upcoming matches.
FAQ
What does X mean in soccer odds?
X means a draw. In the 1X2 market, 1 is a home win, X is a draw, and 2 is an away win.
Does the 3-way market include extra time?
No. It is settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties are not included.
What is the difference between draw no bet and double chance?
Draw no bet returns your stake if the match is drawn. Double chance counts the draw as a win for your pick, at shorter odds.