Weather is one of the few factors in outdoor sports that changes from game to game regardless of who's playing. It mainly affects scoring, which means it matters most for totals. But it can affect spreads and moneylines too, especially when one team's style is more vulnerable to the conditions.
Football: wind matters most
Many fans assume snow and rain are the big weather factors in football. In practice, wind usually matters most.
- Passing: strong winds make deep passes harder to complete.
- Kicking: field goals and punts become less reliable.
- Strategy: teams may run the ball more, which shortens games and limits scoring opportunities.
Studies and market behavior generally suggest that sustained high winds lower scoring. Light winds have little effect.
Worked example
A game opens with a total of 45.5. Forecasts later call for sustained strong winds with heavy gusts. The total may drop to 41.5 or lower.
If you picked the under at 45.5 before the forecast became clear, you got a better number than the market's later price. See closing line.
Football: rain, snow and cold
- Rain: can cause fumbles and slippery footing, but its effect on scoring is often smaller than expected.
- Snow: dramatic and memorable, but some snow games are surprisingly high-scoring. Heavy snow combined with wind is more significant.
- Cold: extreme cold can affect ball handling and kicking. Teams used to warm climates or domes may be less comfortable.
Because snow and rain games look dramatic on TV, the public sometimes overreacts. Focus on wind first.
Baseball: wind, temperature and humidity
Baseball is very sensitive to conditions because they affect how far the ball travels.
- Wind blowing out: more home runs and higher scoring.
- Wind blowing in: fewer home runs and lower scoring.
- Temperature: warmer air is less dense, so the ball travels farther. Cold weather tends to suppress scoring.
- Humidity: effects are smaller and sometimes counterintuitive. It's less important than wind and temperature.
Worked example
Two games at the same ballpark with the same pitchers:
- A hot day with wind blowing out: total might be 9.5.
- A cool evening with wind blowing in: total might be 7.5.
Same teams, same park, a two-run difference in expected scoring.
Altitude
Altitude reduces air density, which helps fly balls travel. Coors Field in Denver is the classic example. It sits about a mile above sea level and is famous for high scoring. Totals there are usually higher than at other parks. Altitude can also matter for visiting teams' stamina in other sports.
Ballparks and stadiums
- Domes and retractable roofs: remove weather from the equation when closed. Check whether a roof will be open.
- Park dimensions: shorter fences favor hitters.
- Wind patterns: some stadiums are known for swirling or consistent winds.
Weather and team styles
Weather can affect teams differently.
- A pass-heavy football offense may suffer more in high winds than a run-heavy one.
- A fly-ball pitcher may benefit when wind blows in, and suffer when it blows out.
- Teams from warm climates or domes may be less comfortable in cold weather.
These effects are real but modest. The market usually accounts for obvious cases.
Rainouts and postponements
In baseball, rain can delay or postpone games. Rules on how picks are settled vary, often depending on how many innings are played. A shortened game may count or be voided depending on the market. Always check the rules.
How to use weather information
- Check forecasts close to game time. Forecasts change, especially wind.
- Focus on wind speed and direction. It's usually the biggest factor.
- Note whether the market has already moved. Weather news gets priced in quickly.
- Consider team styles. Who is more affected?
- Don't overreact to dramatic conditions. Snow looks dramatic, but wind matters more.
Soccer and other sports
Weather matters in soccer too. Heavy rain can slow the ball on grass, and strong wind can affect long passing. Extreme heat can reduce tempo. But effects are usually smaller than in American football and baseball.
Practice with weather in mind
Before your next outdoor game pick on MockSport, check the forecast and note it with your free play-money pick. Over a season, you'll build a sense of how much weather really matters. Browse the odds page.
FAQ
What weather affects football scoring most?
Strong wind. It affects passing and kicking more than rain or snow does.
Does hot weather increase scoring in baseball?
Generally yes. Warm air is less dense, so batted balls travel farther, which tends to increase scoring.
Why is Coors Field known for high scoring?
Its high altitude means thinner air, so the ball travels farther. Totals there are usually higher than at other parks.