Expected Value (EV) Calculator
Enter the odds and how likely you think the pick is to win. See whether it is worth it in the long run.
How expected value is calculated
EV = (win chance × profit) − (lose chance × stake). At 2.50x odds a 100 stake profits 150. If you think the pick wins 45% of the time, EV = 0.45 × 150 − 0.55 × 100 = +12.5 per pick.
The break-even chance is 1 ÷ decimal odds: 40% at 2.50x. When your estimate is above it, the pick has positive EV. Estimates are the hard part, so practice them with play money first.
FAQ
What is expected value in sports picks?
Expected value (EV) is what a pick would earn or lose on average if you made it many times, based on your estimated chance of winning and the payout.
What does positive EV mean?
Positive EV means your estimated win chance is higher than the chance built into the odds, so over many picks you would come out ahead. It does not guarantee any single pick wins.
Where does the win chance come from?
It is your own estimate. The calculator shows the break-even chance so you can see how sure you need to be for the price to be worth it.