NFL Pick'em is one of the most popular friendly sports games. Every week, you pick the winner of every game, or every game against the spread, and the person with the most correct picks wins the week or the season. It sounds simple. But a few strategic ideas can noticeably improve your results, especially in bigger groups.
MockSport has its own free Pick'em mode with play-money bragging rights, so you can try these ideas with friends.
Know your format
Pick'em leagues come in a few flavors:
- Straight-up: pick who wins each game.
- Against the spread (ATS): pick who covers the point spread.
- Confidence points: rank your picks, assigning more points to games you are most confident about.
- Survivor (or eliminator): pick one team each week to win. Lose and you're out. You can't use a team twice.
Each format calls for different thinking.
Straight-up: use the odds
In straight-up pick'em, the simplest strong strategy is to pick the favorite in most games. The odds reflect a lot of information. Favorites win most of the time.
Worked example: in a week where favorites average a 65% win chance, picking every favorite gives you an expected 65% of picks correct. Trying to "find upsets" usually lowers your expected score, unless you have a real reason.
Convert moneylines to win probabilities using implied probability. A -300 favorite is about 75%. A -120 favorite is about 55%, close to a coin flip.
When to go against the crowd
In a small pool of 5 or 6 friends, picking favorites is usually best. In larger pools, you may need to differ from others to win.
Why? If everyone picks the same favorites, everyone gets the same score. To finish first, you need to be right where others are wrong. That means selectively picking underdogs in near coin-flip games where most people are on the other side.
Worked example: a game is about 55/45, and 90% of your pool picks the favorite.
- If the favorite wins, you lose a point relative to 90% of the pool.
- If the underdog wins, you gain a point on 90% of the pool.
The underdog wins 45% of the time, which is a decent chance to make up ground on almost everyone at once. Choose these spots carefully, ideally in close games.
Confidence points strategy
In confidence formats, assign your highest points to the games with the highest win probability. A -400 favorite (80%) deserves more confidence than a -130 favorite (56.5%).
Worked example with 3 games:
- Game A: favorite at 80% → 3 points
- Game B: favorite at 68% → 2 points
- Game C: favorite at 56% → 1 point
Expected points = 0.80 × 3 + 0.68 × 2 + 0.56 × 1 = 2.40 + 1.36 + 0.56 = 4.32
If you reversed the order, expected points would be 0.80 × 1 + 0.68 × 2 + 0.56 × 3 = 3.84. Ordering by probability matters.
Against the spread
ATS pick'em is closer to 50/50 on every game, because spreads are designed to split opinion. Results are much more random. Tips:
- Note the spread used by your league. If it's locked early in the week, line movement since then can create small advantages. If your league locked a favorite at -3 and the market has since moved to -6 on quarterback news, the favorite now only needs to beat a number the market considers too low. Picking the favorite at -3 is the stronger play in that spot.
- Pay attention to key numbers like 3 and 7. See point spreads explained.
Survivor pools
Survivor is about planning. Each team can be used only once, so:
- Don't burn the best teams early unless you have to.
- Look ahead at the schedule for weeks where strong teams have easy matchups.
- In large pools, avoid the team everyone else is picking if a similarly safe alternative exists.
Late news and deadlines
Injury news, especially about quarterbacks, can change games dramatically. Make picks as late as your league allows, or check injury reports before locking in. See reading injury reports.
Season-long thinking
- Stay consistent. Don't change approach after a bad week.
- Track your picks. Learn which types of games you misjudge.
- Expect variance. A bad week happens to everyone.
Keep it fun
Pick'em leagues are about friendship as much as competition. Keep the trash talk friendly, celebrate good calls and laugh off the bad ones. If you want competition with no money involved, run your league on MockSport with play-money tokens.
FAQ
Should I always pick favorites in NFL Pick'em?
In small pools, mostly yes. In large pools, you may need a few well-chosen underdog picks in close games to separate from the pack.
How should I assign confidence points?
Give the most points to the games with the highest win probability, based on the moneyline, and the fewest to near coin-flip games.
What's the best survivor pool strategy?
Save strong teams for later weeks when possible, plan ahead using the schedule, and avoid the most popular pick in big pools when a similar option exists.