The point spread is the most popular way to predict football and basketball games in the US. It turns a lopsided matchup into something close to a coin flip by giving points to the underdog. If you have ever wondered what "the Chiefs are -6.5" means, this guide is for you.
What a point spread does
Without a spread, a strong team playing a weak team is easy to predict. The spread fixes that by adding a handicap.
- The favorite has points subtracted from its score. It is listed with a minus sign, like -6.5.
- The underdog has points added to its score. It is listed with a plus sign, like +6.5.
You then check who wins after the adjustment. When your side wins after the adjustment, it covers the spread.
Worked example
An NFL game:
- Home: -6.5 (-110)
- Away: +6.5 (-110)
Final score: Home 27, Away 21. Home wins by 6.
- Home -6.5: 27 − 6.5 = 20.5, which is less than 21. Home does not cover.
- Away +6.5: 21 + 6.5 = 27.5, which is more than 27. Away covers.
The home team won the game, but the away team won against the spread.
Final score: Home 31, Away 20. Home wins by 11.
- Home covers (11 is more than 6.5).
A simple shortcut: the favorite must win by more than the spread. The underdog must either win outright or lose by less than the spread.
The -110 next to the spread
The number in brackets is the price. Spreads are designed to be about 50/50, so both sides are usually around -110. That means risk 110 to win 100.
At -110 you need to win 52.4% of your picks to break even. The extra is the house margin. See what is the vig.
Sometimes the price shifts instead of the spread. You might see -6.5 (-120) on one side and +6.5 (+100) on the other. That tells you the market leans a bit toward the favorite but not enough to move the number to -7.
Why half points exist
Spreads often end in .5, like 3.5 or 6.5. That is called a hook, and it means there can be no tie.
If the spread is a whole number, like -7, and the favorite wins by exactly 7, it is a push. Your stake is returned and nobody wins.
Key numbers in football
In the NFL, scores come mostly in 3s (field goals) and 7s (touchdowns with extra points). As a result, certain margins of victory happen far more often than others. 3 and 7 are the most common final margins, with numbers like 6, 10 and 14 also appearing frequently.
This makes a big difference. A spread of -2.5 and -3.5 look nearly the same, but because so many games end in a 3-point margin, the half point either side of 3 is very valuable. That is why you will notice that lines often sit at 3 and move only reluctantly through it.
Basketball does not have key numbers in the same way, because scoring comes in 1s, 2s and 3s many times per game.
Spread vs moneyline
The spread asks "by how much?" The moneyline asks "who wins?"
| Situation | Favorite moneyline | Favorite -6.5 | |---|---|---| | Wins by 10 | Win | Win | | Wins by 4 | Win | Lose | | Loses | Lose | Lose |
Underdog spreads give you a cushion. An underdog at +6.5 wins if they win the game or lose by 6 or fewer. Read moneyline bets to compare.
Spreads in other sports
- NFL and college football: spreads are the main market.
- NBA and college basketball: spreads are popular, usually larger numbers.
- MLB: the run line, usually fixed at -1.5 / +1.5, with prices that vary.
- NHL: the puck line, usually -1.5 / +1.5.
- Soccer: the Asian handicap, often in quarter goals.
How spreads are set
Oddsmakers start with power ratings that estimate how good each team is, add a value for home advantage, then adjust for injuries, rest, weather and matchups. The goal is a number that splits opinion. After it opens, the line moves as information and money arrive. See power ratings and why betting lines move.
Common beginner mistakes
- Picking the better team, not the better number. The good team is usually favored by enough points to make it a fair fight.
- Ignoring the hook. -3 and -3.5 are very different in football.
- Forgetting late scores. Garbage-time touchdowns and late free throws often decide spreads. A game that "felt" like a cover can miss by a point.
Practice spreads with play money
The best way to learn spreads is to follow the score with the line in mind. Make a free play-money spread pick on MockSport, then watch the game and track whether your side is covering at each stage. You will quickly see how often the final minutes matter. Find games on the odds page.
FAQ
What does +3.5 mean?
Your team gets 3.5 points added to its final score. They cover if they win or lose by 3 or fewer.
What happens if the favorite wins by exactly the spread?
If the spread is a whole number, it is a push and stakes are returned. If it has a half point, a tie is impossible.
Is the spread the predicted margin of victory?
Roughly. It is the number the market thinks will split opinion evenly, which is usually close to the expected margin.