A moneyline pick is the simplest way to predict a game. You choose which team or player will win. There is no point spread, no total, no margin of victory. If your side wins, you win. If they lose, you lose.
That simplicity makes the moneyline the best place for beginners to start.
How moneyline odds work
Because teams are rarely evenly matched, the payout changes depending on who you pick. The favorite pays less and the underdog pays more.
In American odds:
- Favorite: -170. Risk 170 to win 100.
- Underdog: +145. Risk 100 to win 145.
In decimal odds, the same game might be 1.59 and 2.45.
Worked example
An MLB game is listed:
- Home team: -170
- Away team: +145
You pick the home team with 85. Profit = 85 × (100 ÷ 170) = 50. Total return = 135.
You pick the away team with 85. Profit = 85 × (145 ÷ 100) = 123.25. Total return = 208.25.
Implied probabilities:
- Home: 170 ÷ 270 = 63.0%
- Away: 100 ÷ 245 = 40.8%
The total is 103.8%, so there is a margin of about 3.8% built in.
What about ties?
In sports where ties are possible, the rules vary.
- NFL: Ties are rare but possible. On a two-way moneyline, a tie usually results in a push (stakes returned), depending on the rules.
- NHL and NBA: Standard moneylines usually include overtime and shootouts, so there is always a winner.
- Soccer: Draws are common, so soccer usually uses a three-way moneyline (home, draw, away). If you pick a team and the game is drawn, you lose. See soccer 3-way odds.
Always check whether a line includes overtime.
Moneyline vs point spread
The point spread levels the playing field by giving points to the underdog. The moneyline does not.
Suppose a football team is favored by 7 points:
- Moneyline: Favorite -300, Underdog +240
- Spread: Favorite -7 (-110), Underdog +7 (-110)
If the favorite wins by 3:
- Favorite moneyline wins.
- Favorite spread loses (they did not win by more than 7).
- Underdog spread wins.
The moneyline answers "who wins?" The spread answers "by how much?" Read more in point spreads explained.
When the moneyline makes sense
Close games. When teams are evenly matched, moneyline prices are near even money, and you only have to pick the winner.
Underdogs you believe in. If you think an underdog has a real chance, the moneyline pays you directly for an upset. A +200 underdog that wins 36% of the time is a good price (break-even is 33.3%).
Low-scoring sports. In baseball and hockey, margins are small and the moneyline is the main market. A one-run or one-goal win counts the same as a blowout.
When to be careful
Heavy favorites. Picking a -400 favorite feels safe, but you are risking 400 to win 100. One loss wipes out four wins. You need to be right more than 80% of the time to break even.
| Moneyline | Break-even win rate | |---|---| | -400 | 80.0% | | -250 | 71.4% | | -150 | 60.0% | | +150 | 40.0% | | +250 | 28.6% |
Long-shot underdogs. A +600 underdog pays well but wins rarely. Implied probability is about 14%. Do not chase big payouts just because they are exciting.
Moneyline parlays
Some people combine several moneyline favorites into a parlay to get a bigger payout. Three -200 favorites combine to roughly +238. But all three must win, and the chance of that is around 30% at the implied probabilities. Our guide on parlays explains why these are harder than they look.
What to check before a moneyline pick
- Starting lineups. In baseball, the starting pitcher matters enormously. In hockey, the starting goalie.
- Injuries. See how injury reports affect odds.
- Home and away. See home-field advantage.
- Rest and travel. Back-to-back games and long road trips matter, especially in the NBA and NHL.
- The price. Convert to implied probability and ask if you agree.
Try moneyline picks for free
The moneyline is the best place to learn because the question is simple. On MockSport you can make free moneyline picks with play-money tokens across NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and soccer games. There are no deposits and no prizes, just a record of how good your reads are. Start on the odds page.
FAQ
What does moneyline mean?
A moneyline is a pick on which side wins the game outright, with no point spread. The odds set how much you win depending on whether you pick the favorite or the underdog.
Does the moneyline include overtime?
In the NBA, NHL and NFL, standard moneylines usually include overtime. In soccer, the standard three-way moneyline is for regular time only, including stoppage time.
Is the moneyline easier than the spread?
It is simpler to understand, but not necessarily easier to profit on. Favorites pay little, so you have to win often, and underdogs pay well but lose more often.